El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

638
FXUS64 KEPZ 021154
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
454 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 452 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

 - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures through Tuesday, with
   breezy afternoon winds today.

 - A backdoor cold front will bring breezy to windy east winds and
   cooler air Wednesday and Thursday.

 - The dry conditions look to continue Friday and Saturday,
   warming back up to above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 826 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

A few weeks ago we had a blocking pattern characterized by an
upper level low south of an upper level ridge. That pattern kept
our weather pretty stagnant for five days, and it looks like a
similar pattern will develop this week. Currently an upper level
ridge is centered over New Mexico, but that ridge will quickly
push off to the east by Monday afternoon as a short wave trough
rides the ridge`s coat tails. The short wave trough will give us
some off and on breezy warm west winds. The winds will help warm
our temperatures 3 to 8 degrees above average. By Tuesday
afternoon, an upper level trough will develop off the coast of the
Baja of Mexico and to the north along the central California
coast, an upper level ridge will develop. This rex block pattern
will be in no hurry to move off. The rex block will keep us dry
through Friday as the storm track will be pushed way to the
north. Jumping back to Tuesday, our high temperatures on that will
continue to run several degree above average, but late Tuesday
and into Wednesday, we will see a decent back door cold front push
across the region from the east to the west. The front will be
dry and it will usher in cooler air into the region. High
temperatures on Wednesday, will run 5 degrees below average east
of the Rio Grande and a few degrees above average west of the
river. Winds behind the front will be breezy to almost windy
especially along the west slopes of area mountains. On Thursday,
the high temperatures will be about the same as Wednesday`s highs.

For Friday, the rex block finally breaks down as a strong upper
level trough approaches the west coast. Initially we will see very
little impact from the west coast upper level trough, as it will
creep oh so slowly to the east. High temperatures for Friday
through next Sunday will continue to run 2 to 7 degrees above
average. After a two week stretch of dry weather the extended
models are beginning to hint at a return to some precipitation
chances for the end of next weekend as the west coast trough
begins to move in our direction.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 452 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions through the period with increasing SCT180 BKN-
OVC250. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning,
increasing to west 10-15G25 knots this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 452 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Dry southwest flow today and Tuesday will result in higher clouds
and well above normal temperatures. A disturbance aloft in this
flow will also bring breezy afternoon winds today as it moves
through. Winds aloft turn northwest Wednesday and Thursday, still
dry, but ushering in a cool front and cooler temperatures (back
around normal), along with breezy east winds. Next Pacific trough
will rotate through the fire zones Friday and Saturday, bringing
in more clouds and temperatures back to well above normal.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Saturday. Mountains 20-30%
Gila/Black Range through Saturday; Sacramento Mtns 25-40% through
Saturday. Vent rates fair-good this afternoon, and again on
Wednesday; poor-fair all other days through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  43  68  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            38  60  34  53 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               38  64  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               35  63  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               27  48  25  39 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    38  65  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              38  63  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   39  68  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                38  66  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       45  66  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                33  61  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             41  68  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               41  59  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   41  68  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             40  66  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           43  65  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            35  65  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    38  68  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 43  67  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                36  63  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  29  59  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                28  58  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 32  55  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  29  61  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                39  65  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                35  65  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             25  64  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   36  64  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    23  70  24  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               21  67  20  64 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  40  63  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   41  67  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  39  66  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           41  66  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  63  41  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner