El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

248
FXUS64 KEPZ 050507
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1007 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1006 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

 - Friday, cold morning and cool afternoon with afternoon breezes,
   but dry and sunny.

 - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and a slow warming trend are
   expected through the weekend.

 - Next week: Continued fair fall conditions. Dry and mostly sunny
   days. Mild temperatures climbing to above seasonal normals.
   Winds lighter across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1006 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Our latest storm system pulled away from the region through the
afternoon hours today, leaving behind some mountain snow across the
Sacs and Gila, as well as some light and spotty lowland rain.
We are now on the backside of that exiting wave of energy and
moisture, but still under a very broad and relatively shallow trough
that extends almost coast to coast, across the U.S. Over the west
coast there is ridging, and the flow is mostly zonal over the east
coast. Also there is a pendant trough over the Baja, somewhat
disconnected from the flow across the U.S. in the parent trough. For
us that means the storm track is back to our north, with moisture
streaming across the Rockies to our north. The disconnected trough
over the Baja has a connection to subtropical moisture, and is
steering it NE across N Mexico into TX, but mostly to our S and E,
as increasing NW flow into our region, pushes that moisture plume
south of our area. Thus we will trend sharply drier under this
persistent NW flow pattern.

Looking ahead the next week, we see a static pattern entrenched over
our region, with high pressure off the SCAL coast, keeping a ridge
over the SW U.S., with a broad standing trough spilling out of the
PacNM, across the Central Rockies, into the Tennessee Valley over
the SE U.S. That keeps us in a dry NW flow regime for the duration
of this forecast package. This will manifest in temperature warming
to seasonal for the weekend, and above normal (5-7 degrees) for most
of next week. After a mildly breezy afternoon Friday, winds look to
be generally light for the next week. Outside of a few periods of
passing high clouds, we expect to see mostly clear skies for the
week ahead. And from a probability perspective, our rain/snow/precip
chances are as close to zero as they can get through the end of next
week.

Bottom line, Friday, the weekend, and all of next week, look to have
fair weather, with dry conditions, seasonal and above temperatures,
and relatively light winds most days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Skies ranging
from SKC to SCT250, with no CIGS. Winds light and variable through
the overnight, favoring a northerly direction. Tomorrow, aft
18-20Z winds mostly westerly and increasing to 10-12kts with gusts
22-25kts. No dust expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

A trough exiting into the Great Plains today will usher in a
regime of northwest flow aloft and drier air. High minRH seen
today will trend down slowly throughout the forecast period,
settling into widespread upper teens by Tuesday. Locally breezy
west winds will favor the high terrain and its adjacent highlands
of eastern zones on Friday and Saturday. Winds will trend lighter
into the next work week. Ventilation will be poor to fair most
days, with Friday seeing better coverage of good rates in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  31  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               58  28  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               55  27  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               35  22  40  25 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    55  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              51  27  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   61  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                56  27  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  36  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                63  24  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             67  33  68  37 /   0  10   0   0
Loma Linda               54  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   63  31  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  31  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  36  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            58  24  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    62  25  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 63  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  50  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                46  24  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 45  24  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  53  23  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  30  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                55  22  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             51  24  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   54  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    58  22  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  23  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  55  29  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   59  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           61  30  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  33  56  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird